![]() ![]() Source: Man GLG, Bloomberg, MSCI as of 1 October 2018. Figure 2. MSCI Europe, Qs 1 and 5 FCF yield relative MSCI Europe, long/short highest and lowest FCF yield quintile portfolios If, on the other hand, yields rise because of fiscal unsustainability, Federal Reserve quantitative tightening and capital repatriation to the G7, then in our view, FCF yield should work very well once again. An inflation regime will benefit companies with pricing power, and those with high levels of fixed rate debt, not necessarily cash generators. If one takes the view that inflation is going to continually accelerate from here and drive bond yields higher with rising animal spirits, FCF strategies seem unlikely to work well. In summary, FCF seems to work well in the average cycle but doesn’t work in a full-on risk rally out of genuine market stress, and doesn’t work well when bond yields are rising. But we can’t help noticing that this perfectly coincides with the period of rising bond yields in the US. In a sense this one should be expected as it coincides again with strong animal spirits. No need for FCF in such days of plenty! And then latterly, in the last two years since October 2016 to now, there has been the second 10% drawdown for the long short strategy. There was a more moderate 6% drawdown between Oct 2005-Jan 2007 right at the end of the cycle with heavily extended animal spirits and credit spreads very tight still. It was a risk-on quarter where banks, with no free cash, led the way simply by pricing out bankruptcy. March-June 2003, as the market first started to recover from the TMT bust, the long short strategy had the first of its two >10% drawdowns. When doesn’t it work? There seem to be two general themes for FCF failure. Going back to Figure 1, we would highlight the strong long-short performance between Dec 2000-Mar 2003 (+60% during the TMT crisis) between March 2007-March 2008 (+21% during the Great Financial Crisis) and reasonable performance between Jan-Dec 2011 (+6%, but still, it made money). If the first rule of investing is, or should be, ‘first, don’t lose money’ (cf the Hippocratic oath’s ‘first, do no harm’), then FCF yield strategies fulfill this abundantly. ![]() This third feature is the real secret sauce of FCF strategies – they are at their best in the market’s left tail, when all around them are faltering, when financing is no longer widely available. A company that generates a lot of free cash is not easily going to go bust. But 3) and crucially, FCF is the ultimate measure of financial sustainability. 2) Cash flow itself is a better measure of profitability than earnings as it incorporates the expansion of the economic capital base required to generate it. 1) It’s a measure of value – a cash flow compared to the valuation of the capital base that generated that cash flow. So it works – but why? Our intuition is that FCF yield has three active ingredients. ![]() What’s clear is that while the long leg consistently outperforms with two manageable drawdowns (in 20), the short leg does nothing for a decade from end 2007 to 2017 – in short, both legs work as you would hope. In Figure 2 we show these, both relative to the broader market this time. It’s interesting to compare the long leg to the short leg too. We can cite numerous other studies by sell-side firms 1 that come to similar conclusions, including ones that use FCF to the firm / enterprise value, and over much longer time horizons than this, and around the world, and all agree that FCF yield strategies work. Figure 1 shows the results – a long short strategy that would have returned 5.4% annualised over nearly 18 years with only two drawdowns worth talking about, of 12% and 10% respectively. Starting with the evidence that it works, we have used a naïve backtest which creates a portfolio that is long the quintile of MSCI Europe stocks with the highest trailing 12 month FCF yield and short the quintile with the lowest.
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